COURSE MATERIAL

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Prerequisite material

“Forecasting: Principles and Practice” by Rob Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos. The key chapters are “Time Series Decomposition”, Exponential Smoothing” and “ARIMA models”.

This is a web-based book (available free of charge) and can be accessed at www.otexts.org/fpp.

“Principles of Business Forecasting” (by Keith Ord and Robert Fildes).  Preliminary Reading Chapter 7 and Preliminary Reading Chapter 8

Welcome Pack NATCOR Forecasting and Predictive Analytics

Slides/Handouts

Monday

Lecture 1 Intro to Forecasting

Lecture 2: Time Series Decomposition

lecture 3: Exponential Smothing

Lecture 4: Exponential Smoothing fopr Trended & Seasonal Time Series

Decompositon Exercise

Exponential Smoothing Exercise

Tuesday

Slides: NATCOR – ARIMA forecasting_NK – Nikos Kourentzes

Slides: NATCOR – Forecast Evaluation_NK – Nikos Kourentzes

Slides: NATCOR Intro to Data Mining V1.41– Sven Crone

S Finlay Guester Lecturer slides

Wednesday

Slides: NATCOR Forecasting Predictive Analytics Report 2016 – Sven Crone

Slides: Regression Modelling for Time Series I– Robert Fildes

Slides: Regression Modelling for Time Series II – Robert Fildes